Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008052 0.009085 0.010217 0.011551 0.013086 0.014799 0.016861
2024-10-20 0.006167 0.007500 0.009088 0.011133 0.013712 0.016876 0.021086
2024-10-27 0.005171 0.006601 0.008403 0.010860 0.014158 0.018477 0.024639
2024-11-03 0.004585 0.006089 0.008069 0.010903 0.014909 0.020453 0.028855
2024-11-10 0.004274 0.005877 0.008073 0.011354 0.016216 0.023293 0.034633
2024-11-17 0.003837 0.005429 0.007685 0.011177 0.016563 0.024748 0.038512
2024-11-24 0.003535 0.005135 0.007473 0.011215 0.017207 0.026692 0.043395
2024-12-01 0.003213 0.004776 0.007120 0.010985 0.017382 0.027885 0.047164
2024-12-08 0.003044 0.004629 0.007071 0.011219 0.018319 0.030418 0.053604
2024-12-15 0.002842 0.004410 0.006885 0.011202 0.018819 0.032249 0.059022
2024-12-22 0.002569 0.004055 0.006446 0.010711 0.018430 0.032438 0.061321
2024-12-29 0.002407 0.003866 0.006264 0.010642 0.018784 0.034016 0.066579
2025-01-05 0.002360 0.003872 0.006419 0.011202 0.020393 0.038243 0.078145
2025-01-12 0.002157 0.003596 0.006065 0.010803 0.020139 0.038802 0.081996
2025-01-19 0.001997 0.003381 0.005799 0.010539 0.020113 0.039808 0.087002
2025-01-26 0.001897 0.003264 0.005699 0.010580 0.020703 0.042174 0.095589
2025-02-02 0.001859 0.003255 0.005797 0.011016 0.022160 0.046614 0.110058
2025-02-09 0.001745 0.003099 0.005603 0.010844 0.022298 0.048117 0.117393
2025-02-16 0.001667 0.003002 0.005515 0.010881 0.022893 0.050755 0.128234
2025-02-23 0.001565 0.002854 0.005314 0.010659 0.022875 0.051920 0.135252
2025-03-02 0.001521 0.002812 0.005322 0.010885 0.023917 0.055827 0.150881
2025-03-09 0.001454 0.002722 0.005223 0.010869 0.024382 0.058346 0.162968
2025-03-16 0.001346 0.002544 0.004932 0.010394 0.023681 0.057738 0.165337